Signals are not proof
A signal is a clue that a pathway may be present, not confirmation that it is. Treating signals as proof is how wider accounts drift into overclaiming. Hold them as evidence to be tested.
The idea
By Dr Jay Whitehead ·
Signals · Evidence · Responsible use
Signals help people notice what to look for: a return visit, a restored role, practical help moving between households, or a change in who feels able to participate. They are prompts for inquiry, not impact findings.
A serious claim needs evidence that the change occurred, a plausible counterfactual, a bounded affected group and a reasoned account of contribution. The Pathway Explorer deliberately stops before that threshold.
This distinction protects the openness of the public tool. People can explore possible pathways without the interface implying an assessment, score or assurance opinion.
A contribution to discussion
© 2026 Dr Jay Whitehead. Shared under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International licence. Invited contributors retain copyright and agree the licence shown on their note before publication.